Gregg Blanchard October 19, 2024
Black Friday calendar creep is a thing. What was once a long weekend has turned into a week, then weeks, and then...a month? More? We all know that brands are sending Black Friday emails earlier and earlier but how early? And is there a distinct point when things really start to ramp up?
This is something I shared some data around during a webinar with Mike Nelson from Really Good Emails / Beefree and Val Geisler from Digioh. You can watch the recording, but I also wanted to share some of this data here.
To answer this question we're going to use 4 years of email data from 100 top retail brands that we've subscribed to using SendView.
When do marketing emails first mention Black Friday?
Let's begin by looking at a chart showing how frequently we see these brands mention Black Friday (or Cyber Monday) in their email campaigns. Note that this is four years of data and BFCM falls on different days every year, so instead of a clear spike on those days we see a rounded curve. Again, the point is to see what days of the year folks start mentioning Black Friday and this does a great job of that (which we'll talk about more in a second).
Now, when we're talking about Black Friday calendar creep what we tend to focus on is all those emails that we see in October. After all, they're talking about Black Friday in October so Black Friday is starting in October, right?
Well, sorta. Let's look at some of those specific emails to show you what I mean.
What kind of Black Friday emails do brands send in October?
The difference is pretty clear once you dig in to individual emails sent during these periods. This isn't to say there are exceptions to this rule, but the vast majority of emails we've seen fit this breakdown.
October Example A) Ridge Wallet
Right up top you see them mention Black Friday, but you'll notice it's not about a sale starting. Instead, they're doing a little bit of prep work for a later date when they do officially start their Black Friday sale. In this case, they're trying to build their SMS list ahead of the holiday.
Notice as you get down into the email the only mention of Black Friday is that one right at the top.
October Example B) Proozy
Next let's look at an email we received in October from Proozy. In this case, again, there is a very clear and strong mention of Black Friday but like the Ridge Wallet example, it's not actually starting a Black Friday sale or referring to a Black Friday sale. Instead, it's using their upcoming Black Friday deals as a reference point for their deals today.
Their subject line and copy are using Black Friday to frame their deals (ie, "Almost as good as Black Friday") but, again, the sale isn't starting yet.
Again, this isn't a guarantee of what every brand is doing - there are certainly exceptions - but this is typical of nearly all the emails we've received from these brands during October that mention Black Friday.
When do Black Friday sales emails officially start?
So if these companies are mentioning Black Friday in October but not starting their sales, when do they actually start their sales? The answer is pretty clear: November 1. Let's look at that chart again that's like up by day of year.
See that little first little spike? That's November 1. As soon as Halloween is over, Black Friday seems to officially begin for the brands that are eager to get things going. In this case they use language like "early access", "early deals", or language that treats the sale as a full month.
Nov 1 Example A) Raycon
For example, when we look at Black Friday mentions on November 1 we see emails like this one from Raycon that refers to their deals as "early Black Friday" offers but also refers to "their biggest deals starting now."
Nov 1 Example B) Vapor.com
Another email we saw on November 1 is this one from Vapor.com that refers to Black Friday deals starting now. In their case, there's no further nuance or distinction: Black Friday began for them on November 1.
Nov 1 Example C) Natural Baby Shower
And lest you feel we're cherry picking, here's yet another email we saw on November 1 from Natural Baby Shower. They're using language like "Our early Black Friday offers have started!" but they're also cleverly assuring their audience that even on Black Friday these deals will not be beaten so folks aren't waiting.
There are more examples like this, but I'll stop here.
When do Black Friday emails officially begin?
Yes, email marketers start to mention Black Friday in October but from our data it appears they really only do so to prepare their list or set expectations for offers that come later. November 1 is the day that we see these companies officially begin their Black Friday deals and distribute them via email.
Let's put that November 1 spike and those early Black Friday offers into context, though:
- The spike in Black Friday emails we saw on November 1 is still less than 10% of emails sent per day on Black Friday.
- More BFCM emails are sent before noon on Black Friday than the entire first seven days of November combined.
In other words, just because brands start mentioning Black Friday doesn't mean there's any sort of wave or momentum starting. That happens much later.
What should you do about it?
I want to end with a reminder you'll hear from me regularly. This dataset is about retail, but that my not represent your brand or industry. In that case it's really important to track your own competitors and space to understand the trends and nuances you're competing with.
In other words, a small, relevant dataset can often be much more valuable than a large, generic one.
Whether you use SendView to try this on your own, now is the time to subscribe to your competitors if you want to learn something from BFCM 2024 that can help guide your strategy for BFCM 2025. If you wait until mid-November to start tracking their emails, you might have data from the actual holidays themselves, but you'll be missing all of the context around how they start and build up to those moments we've discussed in this post.